2017 - The Year In Review

TANV · 2017-12-06T22:01:32.000Z

Well, the following on my observations for this year in review. Now, I'm not a savvy veteran when it comes to re-selling or able to acquire massive pallets of sets. But, I do do this as a side hobby and some things still are worth noting. Disclaimer 1: I primarily sell on eBay and BL for my online markets, with some rare forays into social media and CL as markets Thus, this informs my thoughts on selling. Disclaimer 2: This is my own personal take and opinion. It's not complete Gospel so take what you will. Much of this is what 1. PICKING THE RIGHT SET OR SETS STILL MATTER. This rule of LEGO investing still applies, whether you are in the market for long term investments and holding for many years OR you want to quick flip to rack up some money to continue your hobby. Both are still pretty addicting. You still have to consider your 1) selling platform, 2) target buying group, 3) timing, and 4) buy-in for all this but it doesn't change the fact that picking the right sets matter. For each 21022 Lincoln Memorial or 60118 Garbage Truck I sold at 1.5x-3x, I still had some Star Wars sets remaining or several Brandenberg Gates hanging around. BEWARE OF MASSIVELY OVERPRODUCED SETS. TLG made far too many sets and some of which weren't that good or we wanted. I'm looking at you, Encounter on Jakku! Don't get me wrong, there are still nice gems such as the 75127 Ghost Microfighter which is steadily chugging along. I altered my tastes a bit this year with more of a focus on the limited Seasonal Vignettes or other Seasonal sets as well as some of the Architecture line. It's still a gamble to an extent but it's a lot less risky compared to vacuuming up palettes of SW buildables, Chima, or Joker Steamrollers. Larger sets generally give better returns ONLY if your buy-in is at a good price point. That leads me to my second point... 2. THINK CAREFULLY BEFORE BUYING. When a set goes on sale and catches my eye, I have to consider the following: 1. Is the set exclusive to LEGO and Shop At Home OR other retailers? The most money I make on ROI tends to be the freebie sets which are often exclusive to SAH though they do pop up again sometimes in random places or random times of the year. If a set is at many retailers, I find myself lacking too much urgency. Some retailers have exclusive sets worth going all-in on but it's always a risk because we don't know when it retires. Now, do all Exclusives perform well? NO. Ewok Village seems pretty stagnant right now. So I advise caution. My own take: If it's available everywhere, then EVERYONE has it. 2. When is it likely to be retired? This is both parts speculation and logical. Speculative in the sense that I can guess some sets could retire if they've been out for 2+ years but it's not always certain since we've seen several that end their runs in less than a year. Thus, it's not a perfect answer to the question. However, logically, TLG could put up "Retiring Soon" tags and NOT ACTUALLY RETIRE the set for several months so I know I can have time to acquire. Furthermore, if the set has been out for several years, I start looking at it others since there is an oversupply. 3. Is the set on sale and how often does the set go on sale? If it's 20% off, I ignore it UNLESS it's an Exclusive. Then I reconsider. If it's 30%-40%, I give it a second look. If it's 50% or more I ask WHY?! At first glance, it seems like a no-brainer. But lately, we see that TLG has overproduced certain sets and are attempting to get rid of it. As I write this, I'm aware that TRU put the Baze Malbus Constraction Figure on sale for $8.49 which is 66% OFF the MSRP. If I see it online, then EVERYONE knows. To unload this at 2x MSRP will take me some time. Now, the question is, do I have the patience for this? It's one thing for seasonal clearance or inventory clearing for sets to go on sale at such rates. But when a set is frequently on sale, I stay away from investing in it unless I am buying one for personal builds and collection. Now, this isn't always constantly true. After all, many of the JW sets were on sale and are doing quite well. I recall 7754 Home One being on sale years back and lingering for awhile. This doesn't always hold true for ALL SET; hence I refer you back to Rule 1. Now, if you encounter say...a glitch...on a certain day for an online e-commerce giant that you happen to own many stock shares of and find out they're selling large sets for...say...60% or more off retail...ACCIDENTALLY...well...what are you waiting for?! 4. Does the set within my personal buying patterns and strategies? If you have massive amounts of disposable income, maybe there's other things to spend it on aside from LEGO. That aside, I find this question often hard to answer. First, pick your sets/theme/minifigures AND STICK TO IT. If you have all the money and time in the world to buy up the AT-AT and Speed Champions when they were on sale forever, then great! Just don't start going all in on Bionicle or Ninjago just because t